Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, speaking at a press conference in London on Saturday, indicated that Pakistan would seriously consider restoring trade ties with India, echoing sentiments expressed by the business and trade community within the country.
Pakistan suspended bilateral trade as part of a series of measures in reaction to the Indian government’s unilateral move to revoke the special status of the disputed Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) on August 5, 2019.
Islamabad had previously linked the resumption of trade with India to a reconsideration of India’s decision regarding the IIOJK.
In March 2021, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government came close to lifting the ban when the cabinet’s Economic Coordination Committee (CEC) agreed to partially open trade with India. However, the decision was vetoed by the federal cabinet after some members warned the then Prime Minister Imran Khan that the decision would be political suicide.
At that time, the security establishment under the then army chief General (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa was eager to normalize ties with India.
Dar’s latest statement suggested there may be a new push to break the ice in the relationship with India.
However, sources told The Express Tribune on Sunday that there was no concrete proposal on the table at the moment regarding the resumption of trade ties between Pakistan and India.
There are believed to be differences of opinion among interested parties regarding the measure. Even within the Foreign Office there are divided opinions, something that sources said was not unusual.
Some are in favor of sticking to Pakistan’s position that without major concessions from India there should be no normalization.
However, others take a more pragmatic and realistic view. They believe Pakistan can take a page from China’s playbook. China has difficult ties and border disputes with India, but this has not deterred the two rivals from establishing trade ties.
While General (retd) Bajwa was keen on improving ties with India, there is little clarity when it comes to his successor. Some observers think Dar’s statement on resuming ties may have the blessing of the powers that be.
Supporters of resuming trade ties with India believe regional trade could help Pakistan mitigate its economic woes.
A study conducted by an international financial institution spoke of great trade potential between Pakistan and India. The study shows that the true trade potential between Pakistan and India could exceed $25 billion.
However, official sources are skeptical about the positive result. The Ministry of External Affairs believes that Pakistan should wait until the Indian elections, which will be held in different phases in April and May.
The clear picture will emerge only once a new government is established in New Delhi in May.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on his election victory, but his terse statement raised many eyebrows.
Observers believe that despite the tense relationship, Modi’s message seems to suggest that India wants to keep the window for talks with Pakistan open.